Russia’s Cultural Revolution

June 24, 2023

Ukraine invasion is becoming a Cultural Revolution moment for Russia, wherein Putin’s successor, whomever it may be, is given a chance to earn the respect of the Russian people

We are today living through Russia’s Cultural Revolution. This period of turmoil is intended to produce for the Russian civilization its next leader, empowered with legitimacy and respect of the Russian people – a considerable task. This appears to me to be Putin’s primary objective from the invasion of Ukraine, to give a chance for an aspiring leader of Russia to earn the respect of the people. He had likely hoped for success on the battlefield to provide an opportunity to publicly elevate a hero from amongst the military brass. The embarrassing military failures have dashed such hopes, but yet one man now seems to have credibility: Prigozhin of the Wagner Group. In this coming period, Prigozhin will continue to be tested, not for the capture of Ukraine but for earning the respect of the Russian people. If Prigozhin is successful, I anticipate it would be Putin’s great desire for his final contribution to the Russian civilization to be facilitate an orderly transfer of power to a leader who shares his patriotic love.

Cultural Revolution for Succession

In 1966, a 72 year-old Mao Zedong contemplating his own mortality was concerned about the waning revolutionary spirit of his fellow comrades and the lack of revolutionary opportunity for the younger generation who did not live through the tumultuous times of the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression (as 1937 - 1945 is known in China) and the 1945-1949 phase of the Chinese Civil War. His comrades within the Communist Party were sounding too capitalist, and the youth were soft and untested.

During the following 10 years until 1976, tremendous chaos engulfed all of China. (For more on this, I recommend MacFarquhar’s China’s Last Revolution). But within the chaos, one can see Mao’s systematic development of revolutionary traits in the youth, traits he believed (rightly or wrongly) were essential to perpetuate for future generations of leaders. And he attempted to elevate several leaders including Lin Biao, Wang Hongwen, and Hua Guofeng. Although none ultimately proved satisfactory to Mao, it’s notable how central the question of succession was to the entire project of the Cultural Revolution.

This period of chaos is certainly one of the greatest tragedies of Chinese history, and hardly anyone, including the Communist Party would deny this. But if Mao’s motivation was to counteract the lack of revolutionary vigor amongst his comrades and the youth as he contemplated succession, he indelibly made his mark. One of those youths, purged and sent to the countryside for physical labor and contemplation was Xi Jinping. Decades later that revolutionary message from Mao – that entitlement and corruption within the party is to be feared, that the political spirit must be prioritized above purely economics – these are the distinct characteristics of Xi’s leadership.

Putin’s Lonely Table

It is reported that Putin and Xi have met 40 times over the past decade, and it is certainly known that they have a close relationship. With the problem of succession doubtless high on Putin’s mind, I expect Putin and Xi have discussed Mao and the Cultural Revolution as an exercise in preparing for succession. Mao’s problem in his 70s is also Putin’s problem today: lacking a successor who shared the values he prioritized (revolutionary credentials in Mao’s case, and perhaps patriotism and credibility in Putin’s case).

Putin sitting at an absurdly long table during the pandemic is an iconic and puzzling image. He certainly did not previously do this. But it makes more sense when we comprehend, as Putin certainly does, the fragile state of Russia today until a clear successor can be found. His unexpected death would likely lead to chaos and potentially civil war. Putin has stated in the past that the sudden disintegration of the Soviet Union into chaos was the greatest tragedy of the 20th century, and for a man who seems truly to care about his legacy, avoiding such a repeat is of paramount importance.

Chaos, however, would possibly have been in the interest of the West. It would be the perfect opportunity for Ukraine to recapture Crimea, and for Nato to absorb Ukraine. And for similar reasons it would be a disaster for China, always fearful of chaos and certainly not keen to have a civil war ravage its northern neighbor. It becomes quite clear then the common interest Putin and Xi have in landing an orderly succession for Putin.

Respect & Trust of the People

I expect a new phase of the Ukraine war has begun. Although specific events are hard to predict, the direction that both Putin and Prigozhin will take is to give Prigozhin every opportunity to build his own national and global prominence, elevate his power and credibility, and ultimately give him legitimacy to be the next leader of Russia. Prigozhin’s direct control of Wagner, along with Putin’s criticism of the regular military bureaucracy, is hopefully enough to avoid a civil war. The best outcome, at least for those who want stability, is for Prigozhin to earn his legitimacy enough for Putin in a reasonable time frame to personally anoint him as successor.

In July 2019, the Financial Times did a brilliant interview with Putin in Moscow. In the final minutes, Putin, asked about succession, states: “No matter what and how the current leader does, no matter who or how he represents, it is the voter that has the final word, the citizen of the Russian Federation…Of course, the current leader always supports someone, and this support can be substantive if the person supported has the respect and trust of the people, but in the end the choice is always made by the Russian people.”

Prigozhin is now being given the opportunity to earn for himself “the respect and trust of the people”. We’ll soon see how he does. And pray it does not create the chaos that did the Cultural Revolution in China.